Global Markets

The economy of a nation is the engine that drives prosperity and creates wealth for that country and its citizens. A nation's utilization of its available resources and manpower has a great influence upon its overall economic prowess. Factors such as governmental structure, access to valuable commodities, size and sophistication of the labor force, and relations with trade partners are all key components of achieving economic stability. Governmental politics play a crucial role in the resolution of many issues facing a nation. The potential impact upon international markets of U.S. President-elect Trump's economic policies, tensions between Russia and NATO, and…

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  • “Nu” Covid Variant Leads to Risk-Off Sentiment

    The GER30 gapped down on open today, as a risk-off sentiment prevails. The catalyst is covid-19 developments. In Europe, countries are starting to reintroduce restrictions to deal with rising infections. On Wednesday, Italy announced new Covid measures, and Germany narrowly avoided another lockdown, preferring to see if stricter Covid passport rules help alleviate the situation. Moreover, concerns over a new Covid variant have added to the fears. The B.1.1.529, or…

  • Yields Jump On Astounding Initial Jobless Claims Number

    US10Y At Neckline Source: Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results. The US10-Yr Treasury yield is up sharply for the week, currently trading at 1.68%. The nominal rate is now trading at the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern. A break above the neckline will effectively complete the reversal pattern and signal that the market is pricing in higher real yields, inflation, or…

  • Consumer Sentiment Hit By Inflation Concerns

    In this article: 1. University of Michigan consumer survey misses consensus. 2. US consumers are gloomy. 3. Inflation is rampant. 4. The Fed may have to pivot on policy. Friday's preliminary consumer sentiment reading from the Univesity of Michigan was sobering. US consumers are hurting. Last month's print was 71.7, and 72.5 was the consensus for Friday's number - it came in at a paltry 66.8. Faced with the prospects…

  • Nominal Yields Adjust Off CPI Print

    Yesterday, the US headline CPI beat the forecast of 5.8% y/y, coming in at 6.2%. The core CPI, which strips out volatile items such as energy and food also beat at 4.6% (4.3% forecast). As such, nominal yields are adjusting. Past performance is not an indicator of future results Source: The chart above shows the Heiken Ashi US10Y. Its yield is a nominal yield i.e. it has an inflation…

  • The Fed Appears To Be Behind The Curve

    Past performance is not an indicator of future results. Source: Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, the US10Y yield (blue line chart) was in decline. At the same time, the 10Y breakeven inflation rate was coming down. This period is denoted by the red down trendlines. The orange box represents most of the 2020 year, as authorities implemented unprecedented monetary stimulus to deal with the fallout of the pandemic. To…

  • Weekly Market Recap: November 01-05

    The week was packed with important events and central banks were front and center, delivering consequential and market-moving decisions. We also had some key economic release and quarterly financial results from high profile firms


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