NAS100 Upbeat after Blockbuster Nvidia Results & Lack of Cut Talk by the Fed

NAS100 Analysis

The tech heavy index dropped on Tuesday, as the Fed's accounts of the last policy decision showed that there was no discussion around rate cuts, disappointing investors ^[1]. Markets believe that rates have already peaked and look to the timing policymakers will start slashing them. CME's FedWatch Tool assigns the highest probability to such outcome materializing in May. ^[2]

The central bank had delivered its second straight hike in a row at the start of the month, softening its language around the need for more tightening. However, officials have largely stressed the need for prolonged restrictive policy in order to achieve the 2% inflation target and Chair Powell had recently firmed up his rhetoric, saying that "we're not confident at this time" that such a stance has been attained. ^[3]

The tech world meanwhile continues to monitor the OpenAI leadership debacle, after the ChatGPT creator fired CEO Sam Altman. Overnight the company announced the return of Mr Altman and changes to the Board of Directors ^[4]. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella was "encouraged" by the latest news, viewing them as "a first essential step on a path to more stable, well-informed, and effective governance" ^[5]. Microsoft has a lot riding on OpenAI, since it has invested billions in it and the collaboration has helped it break ahead of its rivals in the AI arms race. These development likely helps the tech giant and now remains to be seen if it will have greater oversight, get a seat at the board and maybe even make an acquisition play.

There is one company however that stands out in this generative artificial intelligence revolution, which is non-other than NVIDIA. Its infrastructure has enabled the boom and already reaps the benefits, with a surge in its revenues and the stock price, which has more than tripled this year. Yesterday's results reveled further progress, with new record revenues and profits, driven by AI demand and expectation for further growth ahead.

Despite muted reaction, the tech sector is upbeat and NAS100 finds renewed vigor after yesterday's slide and ahead of the Thanksgivings holiday. The November rally has brought the all-time highs in the spotlight (16,770), although fresh impetus will be needed for challenging them. On the other hand, the 16K handle has troubled the index and with the Fed nowhere near thinking about rate cuts, a pullback would not be unreasonable. However, sustained weakness below the EMA200 (15,250) looks tough under current conditions.