GBP/USD Undermined by the Fed & BoE Outcomes
GBP/USD Analysis
The US Fed maintained rates at 5.25-5.5% on Wednesday, but confirmed the higher-for longer credo, in a hawksih hold. Officials still expect one more hike this year, as they kept the median terminal rate projection at 5.6% and pointed to tighter 2024 policy path than previously expected, by raising that year's forecast to 5.1% (from 4.6% previously). [1]
The Bank of England took up the baton yesterday and hit the pause button [2], after fourteen straight hikes worth 515 basis points, emboldened by the latest soft CPI report. Unlike its US counterpart, the BoE did not offer any clear hints around its next steps and the 4-5 split vote adds to the uncertainty.
These policy decisions shuttered the already waning rate advantage of the British Pound and delivered a one-two punch to GBP/USD, which extends this month's losses. It is now vulnerable to 1.2079 (38.2% Fibonacci of the 2022 low/2023 highs rally), although bears will likely need fresh impetus for a test that would bring 1.1801 in the spotlight.
On the other hand, the chart points to oversold conditions and this can give GBP/USD the chance to rebound, but the upside look unfriendly from around 1.2500 onwards. Even though the BoE paused and was vague around the outlook, it does not mean that rates have peaked. Speaking on Bloomberg after Thursday's decision, Governor Bailey said "the job isn't done yet and we will of course keep on doing the job". [3]
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Financial Editorial Writer
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.
References
| Retrieved 22 Sep 2023 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20230920.pdf | |
| Retrieved 22 Sep 2023 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2023/september-2023 | |
| Retrieved 07 May 2024 https://www.youtube.com/watch |
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