AUD/USD Sets New 2022 Lows as the AU Labor Market Shows Signs of Cooling
AUD/USD Analysis
The Reserve Bank of Australia had kept rates unchanged at 4.1% earlier this month [1], marking the second straight hold and the third in this tightening cycle, which started in May 2022 and has produced 400 basis points of hikes.
Inflation moderated further to 6% y/y in the second quarter, while today's data showed signs of cooling in the labor market. Unemployment rose to 3.7% in July and 14.6K jobs were lost, in the biggest decline of the year.
This can help policymakers stay in the sidelines again and sent AUD/USD to the lowest levels since November, exposing it to 0.6271. The pair is also weighed by hawkish Fed minutes and fears around the Chinese economy and its property sector.
On the other hand, the RBA has kept the door open to more hikes, as inflation remains far from the 2-3% target and the labor market is still tight, despite signs of easing. As per Governor Lowe's comments from last week, "it is possible that some further tightening" will be needed to achieve that goal. [2]
AUD/USD finds some reprieve during the European hours, as the RSI hit oversold levels, which may give it the opportunity to rebound towards 0.6500. Under these conditions however, we struggle to see sustained recovery above that level and the EMA200 (at around 0.6620) looks distant.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Financial Editorial Writer
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.
References
| Retrieved 17 Aug 2023 https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2023/mr-23-19.html | |
| Retrieved 29 Apr 2024 https://www.reuters.com/markets/australia-cbank-says-worst-over-inflation-policy-enters-calibration-stage-2023-08-11/ |
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